“Not merely the validity of experience, but the very existence of external reality was tacitly denied by their philosophy. The heresy of heresies was common sense.” George Orwell’s 1984. Once again, we feel obliged to throw in a quote from Orwell’s 1984. We might go so far as to make the claim that Orwell, way back in 1949 when he wrote 1984, did a better job of forecasting what a July 2021 Federal Reserve press conference would sound like, than the Federal Reserve did in forecasting changes in their chosen price index from just one month previous. In classic Orwellian … Continue reading Risk Update: July 2021 – Transitory gets the Orwell treatment.